Latest Sotck Investing Movement

Managed to buy back my babies Wellcal and additional lots of CCK.
at the same time, increased my equity holding to 98.39% to get myself to fully invest...
with the constant cashflow from my job,i will be able to average down and keep accumulate shares...

main holding is PANAMY which is 50% of my equity portfolio...
next is CCK with 13%...
total company in my equity portfolio is 8...
with current size of portfolio 10 companies is the limit of company holding...
will increase it once my portfolio grow to 50k after next year...

this year target:
return of 10% or
dividend of RM2400

gogogo...

Investment Policy 2012

Get my lesson last year on OVER DIVEST!!!
Now on,i will never reduce my Equity holding less that 40% no matter what happen on the market...

My total portfolio will be divided into 4 parts in 2012,
1-Equity
2-Fixed income~Amanah Saham Malaysia and Amanah Saham 1 Malaysia
3-Gold&Silver
4-Cash

Equity-
never go below 40%,
focus on small medium company where there will be future growth potential.
focus on strong fundamental company with more CASH,low Debt,strong CF.
focus on agriculture~plantation,healthcare and tech stock.
focus on dividend company.

Current holding:
44% equity in tech due to their low valuation and potential rebound in 2012...
strong fundamental tech stock~GTRONIC and UCHITEC(HALF TECH company)
31% in agriculture and plantation>>CCK and TSH
25% in S'pore compnay...
Shipping trust with high DY>>FSL trust.

High DY holdings are UCHITEC,GTRONIC,FSL around 10%
moderate DY will be CCK AND TSH around 4%

2012 Watchlist:
healthcare: KPJ,AHEALTH&TDM(plantation+healthcare)
Agriculture: QL,TWS,FIMA(plantation+printing+building management)
Small Medium with high DY: PARAMON,SUNWAY,DELUEM,REITs,PTARAS,TIENWAH

yearly target: 15% and reach total of 40k
Dividend target: annual dividend of 2.5k

I do not want to expose my own equity investment in those blue chip because its potential future growth tend to be lower than those small and medium company.
besides that, i has some indirect exposure of it from my AMANAH SAHAM...

Due to more uncertain economic,
will increase my AMANAH SAHAM portion to secure the 6.5% dividend yield...

Lastly,
will invest around 10-20% of my total portfolio in GOLD and SILVER to preserve my portfolio's purchasing power.

Hirotako bhd

HIROTAKO bhd...
this is one of the major automobile component manufacturer in Malaysia...
its manufacture mainly all the safety component especially the airbag...
2012, all car must have 2 airbag...
btw, HIRO produces airbag for perodua d...

its post a good financial position...
but the only drawback is low dividend payout which is the reason i sold it out from my portfolio 2 years ago...

3 years ago,
i bought it around 90cent...
its DY only around 2% but HIRO offer treasury share quite often...

i sold it out around 1.10~1.20 right before its share price jumped to 1.90...
thn went down to around 0.80 after split 1-2 and bonus share 1-4...
lastly, take over deal from MBMR...

we going to lose another good company in BURSA...
kinda sad...

i still have 70 odd lot of HIRO...
which i cant sell it off because its not a complete 1 lot size...

have to find another good company into my watchlist dy...

Another Crisis

Europe sovereign debt crisis is booming.
its no more greece's problem...
its the whole EU problem...

they are facing a very tough time...
there is always strike around the main city of EU...
i experience it when i was in ROME italy...
none of the underground train working at that day until 5pm...
not all the buses are operating...

me and my friends have to take another bus rather than bus 62...
the driver doesnt want to pick up anyone after he dropped off all the passenger at the last stop where he suppose to turn around and pick us up to the city center...
he stop the bus in front of us and just sit inside the bus...

this type of strike will damage the image and econ of the country...

*EU having huge debt...
not all of they generate enough GDP to cover their expenditures...
their people is lazy to work...
lazy to do business...

i dont think they can solve current problem so easily...
EU is not that union when it comes to this stage...

who willing to pay the bill of his neighbor??
or when everyone is in the trouble,who want to help their neighbor??

i'm kinda pessimistic on the EU crisis...
hence i have reduced my equity exposure...
let's see how it goes...

KLCI rebounded...
but it didnt not change its down trend yet...
possibility to head south is higher than going up...

CCK consolidated holdings berhad

above is the preview summary...
CCK is one of my main holding which is 34% of my portfolio...
its in food sector...this is why i invest on it...
small company...hence moving slower than index~beta <1
good fundamental...


its been trading at the range of 0.2++ to the max around 1.2.
1st bought it in during 2009.


its price to book value move around 0.8
which is kinda undervalued...
graham taught us not to pay high price which is overvalue from its book value...
its a safety margin for us if we buy at price to book value below 1...
but not all industry tend to have price to book value around 1...
high BETA industry such as finance,property and oil&gas tend to have higher price to book value...
most of them can be consider cheap when approaching price to book value around 1.5-1.75...


PE since 10 years ago...
it is trading at a PE of 10 most of the time...
compare with KLCI currently~PE of 15...
anything below PE of 10 seems cheaply priced...
current PE around 8-9 is kinda comfortable or relatively safe...
investing in CCK cant expect of EXCITING return in a year...
its share price tend to move slow and steady...
anyone purchase 2 years ago...u gain 22% so far...
normal DY is around 3.5% (slightly higher than our FD rate)
please take into consideration of the treasury share and its ability to give out special dividend once in 2 to 3 years...


lastly,
let see some of the major ratio and justify whether Tiong family did they work well or not...
ROE get back on the ground 10 well...12.49% last year.
net margin is around 4%...
this will get better when its prawn biz get better!!!
CCK is expanding its most profitable biz currently~RETAILING!!
1 dragon services...thats good...

the best part is!!!
good cashflow...
cashflow over sale is 6.45 last year...an average more than 5.5!!
thats why CCK managed pay back quite alot of its debt!!

inventory turnover getting faster...
expanding the retail arm will increase the speed even more...
i quite confident that CCK will do some expansion on its poultry biz soon too...
too make sure its supply can meet the demand all over its retail stores...
its debtor pay back the credit in faster pace...
good for CCK's cashflow!!
debt ratio is deceasing and yet sales increased!!
we did some calculation on the cash ratio last time...
it is well above 1...

to summary it up...
CCK~cash rich,strong cashflow,normal to good dividend(depend whether got special dividend or not),low debt,still growing,low PE and price to book value...
i consider CCK as a good stock for LONG TERM!!!
its the best performer in my portfolio!!

will hold it til its rust!!

**all the information are collected from DATASTREAM (SHU got 1 license for 1 PC in the library only)
DATASTREAM is one of the major database software used in finance industry!!!
so grad i can use it for FREE!!!

Low Risk return

always turning on my mind to think how to earn $$ with the lowest risk possible...

i got a plan...
refinance my house (own by my parents not me)...
may be just RM 100k...
how much will be the interest charge when i'm good enough to do that?
if the refinance cost is just around 5% or below...
then my plan might work...

borrow at 5% and invest all in safe dividend instruments...
Amanah saham~>6%
REIT~>7%
high DY stock~>7%

then i will have 1% to 2% free interest!!
100,000 and i will have 1k free...then reinvestment keep it going...
i will be able to gain bigger portion of "free" gain...

hmmm...
can be workable...

Dividend Received

target of 4 digits dividend in 2010...
we have reach the mid point of 2010...
total received dividend so far is 715.24...
upcoming dividend will be the GTRONIC div which is RM100 will be received in these few days...

so total DIV received in 7 months will be 815.24!!
there will be at least 2 more div payments from wellcall where it will be a total of around RM250...
hence i will receive at least more than RM 1,000.00!!
cool!!
i forecast that GTRONIC will pay another div at the last quarter of 2011...
hence i might be able to get an annual dividend of RM 1,200.00

sold out 1 of my major div generator~FSL trust
due to its down turn biz cycle and the worst performer in my portfolio...
luckily,
still able to generate more than 4 digits div...

main mission gonna be completed...
total portfolio return might not be able to reach the target of 15% this year...
except,
tech industry recover in few months time...

current portfolio is kinda balance with the allocation of...
wellcall~36%
CCK~35%
Gtronic~31%

with a cash ratio of 13.84%






http://10persons.blogspot.com/2011/03/my-portfolioupdates.html

stock trading in UK?

the fastest way to learn...
TO PRACTICE it!!

so i'm planning to get a stock trading account here in uk.
but ordinary share trading account is kinda not famous here.
they use to be CFD trading rather than the share.

CFD is kinda derivative trading where there will be a huge leverage 1 to 10 or 1 to 20..
so we can trade 10 times of our deposit.
we can long or short the underlying share or indices.

trading commission is 0.5% of the value and we pay nothing for the stamp duty.
we still entitle to the dividend and any right issues...
but we do not own the share...

unfortunately...
its not my style...
i going to buy and hold rather than trade those stock for short term...
secondly,
i have only small start up capital...
therefore, i go for high risk at this moment...

found a cheap trading platform from my module leader...
share.com

trading cost kinda similar with m'sia...
minimum cost is 7.5 pound
stamp duty
and plus a admin fee of 2.5pound+VAT every quarter...
i can set a dividend reinvestment order...
where they will reinvest my dividend(must more than 10 pounds)asap...

i'll try to learn how to invest well in uk market and diversify my portfolio...
lastly,
i might be staying here in UK if i manage to get the PSW to work here for 2 years...
time to fight for future...

Gogogo...

德国著名股神的金言

穷人要敢于投机，因为资金太小了，就算输了也没关系
中产阶级需要忠于投资，因为你输不起
富人唯一能做的当然是投机，透过大量的资金操控股市

get it from friend's blog...
http://cwboom.blogspot.com

i'm not a rich people either...
but will not choose to speculate even when my capital is small...

investing require skill and time...
we let time to do the work for us...
snowball effect will become very huge when time run longer...

we just have to ensure our investment skill...
our stock selection and portfolio management...
never underestimate the power of compound effect...

Happy Investing...

NOT all IPO is good to speculate...

Lesson behind JCY listing story
Corporate Portrait by Jeeva Arulanpalam
Monday May 30, 2011
Vital to assess risks when investing in highly cyclical sector

THINK twice before buying shares of a company that will not include the issuance of new shares but the sale of existing shares by its original shareholder(s) during the company's initial public offering (IPO) exercise.

A common piece of advice parted to investors when fishing for new stock investments is if a company that is to be listed offers a great growth story, why would the original shareholder(s) look to reduce his stake significantly? No doubt the original shareholder(s) will want to make a profit during the IPO exercise, but why not have a combination of an offer for sale and issuance of fresh shares to continue enjoying the potential upside the stock will have once listed?

One company that comes to mind is Malaysian hard disk-drive component maker JCY International Bhd, which was listed on the Main Market over a year ago. The company promised a good growth story and was touted at one point during its fund raising exercise as potentially being South-East Asia's largest technology IPO exercise since 2000.

Based on previous news report, YKY Investment Ltd, controlled by Malaysian businessman Y.K. Yong, had originally wanted to sell some 530.2 million existing shares, or 25.9%, of the company to institutional and non-institutional investors at RM1.60 to RM2.20 per share.

Several analysts had then said that the company's indicative IPO price of RM2 per share for retail investors was fairly valued and offered minimum upside. ECM Libra Investment said in a report then that the IPO was priced at a historical earnings multiple of 19.7 times while a smaller peer like Notion VTec Bhd traded at a historical multiple of 11.8 times, making JCY very expensive.

Shortly after, the company slashed its offer size for institutional investors (some reports attributed this to weak demand) and finally sold a total of 443 million existing shares at RM1.60 to institutional investors and RM1.52 to retail buyers. Some analysts had said that the RM1.60 price tag valued the company at nine times 2010 estimated earnings.



Since listing in late February 2010, the company has seen its share price take a beating, losing 62% of its listing price value and ending at 61 sen as at last Friday. The lacklustre appeal in the stock has been mainly due to declining profits although analysts had said then that the company was likely to do well on the back of the technology industry having a bright future.

Many of the “buy” calls recommended by research houses covering the stock have been switched as of late last year to a “sell” or “hold” due to the company's poor earnings. From the six quarterly results announced by the company after its listing in February last year, two quarters reported growth in revenue and earnings, one quarter saw revenue and net profit somewhat plateau while the last three quarters recorded a decline in revenue and earnings.

For the fourth quarter ended Sept 30, 2010, the company posted a net loss of RM22.6mil against a net profit of RM73.5mil a year ago while revenue slipped to RM486mil from RM501.2mil a year ago.

For the first quarter ended Dec 31, 2010, the company made a net profit of RM7.5mil against RM77.5mil a year ago while revenue was down to RM438.9mil from RM528.2mil posted for Dec 31 2009.

More recently, the company announced middle of this month that its second quarter ended March 31 saw net profit slide 81% to RM12.5mil on the back of lower revenue by 28% at RM397.4mil from a year ago.

The reason for lower second quarter revenue was due to the depreciating US dollar against the ringgit and lower volume of components sold for the current quarter as a result of weakening global demand for HDDs. It added that lower pre-tax profits was due to higher cost of production as cost of raw materials such as aluminium and stainless steel as well as labour cost have gone up.

On its outlook for the remaining year, the company has cautioned that a stronger ringgit and shortage of local labour coupled with higher raw material prices will continue to affect the profitability of the HDD component manufacturers. Also, a shortage of HDD components due to the natural disaster in Japan could affect its output.

This paints a bleak outlook for the company, as seen with OSK Research revising its forecast for the company.

“Taking an increasingly conservative stance as a result of the poor showing in the first half of financial year ending Sept 30, 2011 (FY11), we cut our FY11 topline estimate by 9.1% to RM1.9bil. Correspondingly, our FY11 earnings per share dropped by 29.4% to 4.6 sen,” it said in a report this month.

Due to the earnings downgrade and having pegged the stock at a nine times FY11 PER, OSK Research said the company's fair value for its share price was 41 sen, not too far away from its current net tangible asset per share of 43 sen.

“At nine times FY11 PER, it will be trading close to the 10x historical peak PER valuation of Notion and Engtek (Eng Teknologi Holdings Bhd) over the last 5 years and 11 years respectively. We believe the slight discount to its peers is more than justified given JCY's earnings volatility,” it said.

Based on Bloomberg data, three out of the seven analysts covering the stock have recommended a “sell” or “underperform” on the stock with the target price ranging between 41 sen and 64 sen.

The question that begs asking now is what happens to the investors who bought into the company's growth story one year ago and paid either RM1.60 (institutional) or RM1.52 (retail), only to sit on hefty paper losses a year later? Do they cash out at a loss now or wait on the hope that the company will see better days down the line?

A key take-away from all this is that the next time a new company is to be listed, equal importance should be given to the key risks attached to the company's business, especially if its business operates in a highly cyclical sector.

How to avoid losing huge $$ from the stock market~~

saw few of my BLOGGER friends wrote this topic recently...
just want to share my opinion on this topic...

1st~never use "future" money or money that needed for your living!! agreed with YY...
just to make sure that if you really LOST you $$, you wouldn't starve or affect your future living!!

2nd~don't start speculating
do it after you know what you want and how can you do it...
speculator seldom win stock HOLDER in longer term...
1 shoot might kill all you previous 1000 wins....

3rd~Dollar cost averaging...
don't stop buying stock...keep it going...
please read INTELLIGENT INVESTOR written by BENJAMIN GRAHAM...
not necessary in same amount every month...
invest what you afford of...

4th~learn how to do analyze a company...
FUNDAMENTAL...plus small portion of technical analysis...
i learnt this after a 45% loss in 2008...
now i created my own company scanning process...
its cash position...
dividend history...
revenue record...
cash flow record...especially operating cash flow...

5th~stand still...don't follow the market...
market is volatile...
but you don't need to be exactly the same like the market~volatile...

**everyone have their own style...find yours and keep it up...
know what you are doing and heading to are essential!!
NEVER GIVE UP ON INVESTING YOUR $$

Speculate on "Good" catalyst

Gopeng...
involve in the construction and infrastructure...
has been awarded some project under PLUS d...
also diversified into plantation biz...

2 main catalyst issues in this GOPENG's biz...
CPO (plantation) and construction..

lastly is the 35cents special div...
due to the disposal of its sub-company to YTL cement...

paper trade for this counter:
cut win 1.55 (duration~5 trading days...)
will buy in around 1.4-1.43...

2nd chance:
Handal...
O&G related...
but its very new...
low PE among the peer...

Proposed bonus issue of warrant and share...
current price 1.23...
cut win 1.45 (duration 15 trading days)


Previous paper trading's stakes:
""decided to pick up Gamuda for construction, Affin for finance, Dialog(my ex-lover) for O&G and FimaCorp for plantation related...
Yesterday closing price:
Gamuda~Rm 4.07
Affin~Rm 3.18
Dialog~Rm 1.97
FimaCorp~Rm 6.42""

Dialog 2.19 (gain 11.17%)
Gamuda 4.00 EX-date of div (almost equal)
Affin 3.55(gain 11.64%)
Fima 6.32(loss 0.2%)

**(this is just personal records, its not an invitation to trade!!)
***(any trading decision made is your own responsible)

Current Stock Market

KLCI started up so "bull" in 2011...
klci started to gain back some foreign participation...
main themes for current period are...
Plantation, O&G, Construction and Banking sector!!!




we are having huge trading currently...
hit above 2 bil of volume and above RM 3bil in term of value...
a sign of bull market...

let see how far this bull can go...
no one knows...
you can be friend with the current trend...(momentum trading)
or ready to cut ur position...(sell high)

i will stick with my own investment method...DY method...
might reduce my holding if market went too crazy...
or above 15% gain of my total portfolio in the short run...

cant do some small speculation due to the lack of excess capital...
need to sit tight and do paper trading only...

decided to pick up Gamuda for construction, Affin for finance, Dialog(my ex-lover) for O&G and FimaCorp for plantation related...
Yesterday closing price:
Gamuda~Rm 4.07
Affin~Rm 3.18
Dialog~Rm 1.97
FimaCorp~Rm 6.42

Stock Market

This is one of the amazing stuff in the world...
no matter u like it or not...
u will never run away from it...

How many of us eat Maggie's product??
Milo??Dutch Lady's product??
Proton car??
even the tissue...PREMIER is the product of a listed company~NTPM...
without the stock market...
all these big corporates will not be able to expand effectively...

Anyone here have EPF account??
EPF invest a very significant amount in our stock market...
any one buy UNIT TRUST??
most of the unit trust expose themselves to equity(stock market)...

even a normal people should know what is stock market...
we should try to understand how it works...
cuz we are surrounded by it dy...

stock market is a very dynamic and integrated market...
its kinda volatile and linked with many other stuff like politic,international stuff and etc...
thats why we have some approach to reduce the impact of the uncertainty..
buy and hold...
fundamental analysis...
dollar cost averaging...
index fund...
but human beings don't like the easy way...
they tend to learn more with the "hard way"...
need to hit the wall 1st before they realize that they cant get through the solid wall...

we cant predict the market movement always...
dont let a single wave kill all your gain...
not worth it...

any move in ur portfolio cost some $$...
it is wise to set the goal 1st..
then set the strategy...
keep moving with the strategy...
lastly monitor and review...

reduce the strategy adjustment...
try to get the best strategy for yourself..
thats mean...you need to understand your own risk and return profile...
how much you want to gain??don't aim the impossible
(a constant 15% for more than 30 years is a grade B+ dy.more than 20% is A+ dy..like warren buffett)
then how much risk u can stay for....
don't get heart attack if your portfolio decrease a 40% when you invest more in cyclical stock like steel,tech,finance and etc...

never overestimate yourself...
many biases will get into your investing decision...

Be real and logic...
investment need no rocket science...
simple and easy method always outperform over the long run...
(passive fund outperform active fund over the long run after minus the transaction cost)

so...
make your choice now...
happy investing

AHEALTH

we discussed this company this week...
this is a strong CashFlow company and growing without fear even during the previous crisis...
only concern...
its profit margin is kinda low...around 10% only...
but we can see the improvement coming up dy....

main thing we have to look after more is the growth rate of the company...
After the analysis we do forecast that Q3 will be a good grow quarter...
it will surpass the last year Q3 (good management and better market outlook with positive economic condition)
higher than the current Q2 ( Q3 is more than Q2 in most of the time)

we did the right forecast...
well done...

Healthcare Industry in Malaysia

Malaysian Healthcare Analyst Briefing

View more presentations from Frost & Sullivan .

Malaysia Stock Market~KLCI

recently our KLCI hit the 1530 point to be the highest point ever!!
then close at the 1528...
we enjoyed the uptrend for 3 months dy!!
it is good to have some small correction!
11/11/2010,
we can see the profit taking activities going on...
will it be a major correction??
i don't think our KLCI will get a major correction of 10% in near term...
PE of 16 still consider OK...
outlook still bright...
all economic numbers are good...
no HOT $$ running from the KLCI...foreign involvement in our KLCI only around 20++%


12 point decrement is due to the BIG stocks...
we have 9 index stocks in the top loser list!!
PBB,BAT,HLB,PetDag,Maybank,TNB,DIGI,RHB,KLK...
thats why our KLCI drop yesterday!!!
market sentiment is still here...

lets see what will happen today...
last trading of this week...
return back to above 1524??

how good is the LED

the only Malaysia's company get into LED biz...
one of the main reason i decided to hold this stock!!!
someone ask how long would i hold it...
Hmmm...at least 3 years...
its depend...


Globetronics Technology Berhad : Joining The LED Lighting Revolution-12/10/2010


***this is not an invitation to trade!!!you are fully responsible on your trading decision!!

第一次

第一次总是比较刺激的。。。
今年真好，
让我又有了一个＂第一次＂的经验。

感觉真的很好，
有钱收啊。
这是个好的开始。
以后会把投资基金专著在股息。

这次的股息回酬率是3.3％。
这就已经超越了FD啊。
太棒了。

Obama talk about on this recession

how this crisi occur?
how should we recover from this recession?


MR 0