KUALA LUMPUR: The deposit insurance limit will be increased to RM250,000 per depositor per bank with effect from Friday, Dec 31, 2010 and this will protect 99% of retail depositors in full.
PIDM is the government agency mandated by Parliament to protect depositors against the loss of their funds in the event of a member bank failure.
http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/business-news/179416-pidm-new-deposit-insurance-limit-of-rm250000-effective-jan-1.html
**we are safe!!!
dont worry that the bank run will happen in Malaysia...
Showing posts with label 经济之谈. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 经济之谈. Show all posts
QE2
they believe this move can boost the economic...
higher liquidity,more economic activities...
good economic...
but the globalization bring the chain effect...
this will affect all of us around the world...
lets see what will happen next..
Bubble(泡沫)
什么泡沫？
泡沫外面看起来好象很美很大。对吗？
但是内在有的只是空气，
而且一定会破灭的。
经济与投资的泡沫也是如此。
它是因为大众的不理智的定位和预测所做成的。
大众定位和预测某个东西很有价值而且会值更多钱。
但这一切都是他们的情绪所造成的。
大众的进场把价钱提高而且超出了它本身的实在价值！
宇宙有一个定律，那就是＂归零定律＂
一切都会回到它起点它的本。
人也是如此。生老病死！
所以泡沫到达某个极点就会破灭。
一切就回归它的本质。
如果拿１公升的水去煮，
沸腾是我们会看到很多泡泡，对吗？
这是大众最爱进场的时候了。
因为你我都看到很激动的市场也看到很多泡泡。
很多人进场都是因为人的本性＞＞爱趁热闹或是三八。
看到很象很不错，就更其他人一起放一只脚进场。
或是因为三八想看一看发生什么事，但是。。。
看到了很多泡泡很多人说可以，就这样心动进场了。
但是当一切破灭后才发现原来看到的只是泡沫。
如果你有发现沸腾后的１公升不再是１公升了。
已经蒸发了一些或是有一些去了另一地方。
泡沫往往是有人在抄作的！
他们早已经把自己的资金放进市场了。
就是那２０－３０％的资金布置。
沸腾时是他们转手的时机。
当一切任务完成后，他们就会走人也把那２０－３０％的资金带走。
剩那７０％的资金和负面的消息就是泡沫破灭的时候了。
价钱也开始跌会它的实在价值。
泡沫就是这样的把你的钱财转到另一个人的袋子里了。
不要怪他们，要怪的是自己的不理智！！
要常常告诉自己一句话：
＂不要和他们一起疯！！＂
那么你就会远离泡沫了。
0先生
供应与需求
这也就是我们常常听到的Demand＆Supply道理。
如果你已经了解而且知道如何用这道理，
你一定是位很成功的人。
这里的成功是全面性的。
这世界都是在供应与需求下运作的。
供应多于需求，价值就会下降。
供应少于需求，价值就会上升。
供应需求一定是一起出现的。一个也不可少！
没供应的需求=没有
没需求的供应=零
没有的或没人要的都是零
所谓：
＂物以稀为贵＂
１）越少的东西越贵。
２）越多人要的东西也会比较贵（比较同类产品）
没人要的东西，你会出高价买吗？
１）黄金价值高吗？古董贵吗？
全世界只有你一个人会某种技术，你会值多少？
这都是物以稀为贵。
全世界只剩你一个男的，你会怕没有一个又美又好的老婆吗？
２）最多人爱的东西会比较高价钱吗？
NIKE？COCA COLA？FERRARI？LV？
这都是很多人喜欢或是梦寐以求的。
一个又帅又温柔又富有又体贴的男人会没人要吗？
一堆美女挣着要啦！价值非凡。
我们周围都是这样的。
生意，股票，地产，爱情，婚姻，友情。。。
没人要的生意你会做吗？
没人要买的公司股价会高吗？
她都不爱男人爱女人，她当然不会找你啦。（除非你是女的）
你都不要结婚的，你还会去娶个老婆回家吗？
（除非有大减价，超级镁女老婆！！趁便宜买回家放也无所谓吗。。对吗？可能以后有用到。。哈哈）＞＞人的本性。
看看你的周围是不是这样的？？
我们来分享一下吧。
以后再分享牛顿定律
0先生
如果你已经了解而且知道如何用这道理，
你一定是位很成功的人。
这里的成功是全面性的。
这世界都是在供应与需求下运作的。
供应多于需求，价值就会下降。
供应少于需求，价值就会上升。
供应需求一定是一起出现的。一个也不可少！
没供应的需求=没有
没需求的供应=零
没有的或没人要的都是零
所谓：
＂物以稀为贵＂
１）越少的东西越贵。
２）越多人要的东西也会比较贵（比较同类产品）
没人要的东西，你会出高价买吗？
１）黄金价值高吗？古董贵吗？
全世界只有你一个人会某种技术，你会值多少？
这都是物以稀为贵。
全世界只剩你一个男的，你会怕没有一个又美又好的老婆吗？
２）最多人爱的东西会比较高价钱吗？
NIKE？COCA COLA？FERRARI？LV？
这都是很多人喜欢或是梦寐以求的。
一个又帅又温柔又富有又体贴的男人会没人要吗？
一堆美女挣着要啦！价值非凡。
我们周围都是这样的。
生意，股票，地产，爱情，婚姻，友情。。。
没人要的生意你会做吗？
没人要买的公司股价会高吗？
她都不爱男人爱女人，她当然不会找你啦。（除非你是女的）
你都不要结婚的，你还会去娶个老婆回家吗？
（除非有大减价，超级镁女老婆！！趁便宜买回家放也无所谓吗。。对吗？可能以后有用到。。哈哈）＞＞人的本性。
看看你的周围是不是这样的？？
我们来分享一下吧。
以后再分享牛顿定律
0先生
通货膨胀是好的？？
现在我们所担心的不再是＂INFLATION＂而是＂DEFLATION＂
＂deflation＂是资产的价值下降。
屋价下降
股价下降
车价下降
感觉好想会更好，不是吗？
有便宜货了。
但是这也意味着我们的财务也下降了。
今日你可能是个百万富翁，
但是＂deflation＂会把你变成贫民。
这是为什么我们需要一定的＂inflation＂
经济的衰退是＂deflation＂的最大原因。
希望这轮的衰退可以更快的解决。
我们一起等２００９的效果吧。
0先生
＂deflation＂是资产的价值下降。
屋价下降
股价下降
车价下降
感觉好想会更好，不是吗？
有便宜货了。
但是这也意味着我们的财务也下降了。
今日你可能是个百万富翁，
但是＂deflation＂会把你变成贫民。
这是为什么我们需要一定的＂inflation＂
经济的衰退是＂deflation＂的最大原因。
希望这轮的衰退可以更快的解决。
我们一起等２００９的效果吧。
0先生
油价
我国油价的下降开始有一点的苦难了。
政府没那么的容易调低我们的油价了。
因为他们也要＂钱＂。
我国最赚钱的行业是什么？？
油！！
现在的他们已经是每公升赚RM０。３０了。
再降更多的油价只会让PETRONAS少赚很多，
政府也少赚了很多。
OPEC的降低产量显然没效。
国际油价已跳水到USD33.87的水平了。
油的需求量已大大的减少，
当供应多过需求油价很肯定的会回弱。
只要经济还没好回，
油价是很难维持在高价的。
因为衰退期的需求量都是很低的。
每个人都在省钱。
减少消费，
减少出门，
企业也面对着困境，
他们也在减少消费。
短期来看，这一两年的油价是在＂低＂区的。
但是长远还是看好它的。
0先生
政府没那么的容易调低我们的油价了。
因为他们也要＂钱＂。
我国最赚钱的行业是什么？？
油！！
现在的他们已经是每公升赚RM０。３０了。
再降更多的油价只会让PETRONAS少赚很多，
政府也少赚了很多。
OPEC的降低产量显然没效。
国际油价已跳水到USD33.87的水平了。
油的需求量已大大的减少，
当供应多过需求油价很肯定的会回弱。
只要经济还没好回，
油价是很难维持在高价的。
因为衰退期的需求量都是很低的。
每个人都在省钱。
减少消费，
减少出门，
企业也面对着困境，
他们也在减少消费。
短期来看，这一两年的油价是在＂低＂区的。
但是长远还是看好它的。
0先生
英国著名的连锁店Woolworths
（伦敦16日讯）在全球金融危机的冲击下，英国著名的连锁店伍尔沃斯（Woolworths）在一片抛售声中似乎走到了尽头。
每年圣诞节来临，英国各家商店都是红火一片，‘卖’、‘贱卖’、‘大抛售’等招牌异常醒目，但同样的一次大抛售，不只惊动了媒体，而且让英国社会各界倒吸一口凉气。
伍尔沃斯连锁店开始了清仓大抛售，卖的不只是货，而且还包括这个百年老店。
英国《独立报》称，这是伍尔沃斯‘走向结束的开始’，是一次罕见的‘百年大抛售’，充份显示了这家百年老店的最后悲情。
伍尔沃斯在英国曾是一个响当当的名字，1909年，她的第一家店在利物浦城开张，随后不断扩张实力，在英国各地建起了815家连锁店，拥有职员近3万人。
在销售糖果产品方面，伍尔沃斯是英国零售店中的老大；在玩具、童装、家居和娱乐用品方面，它也一度名列前5位。
然而，一场历史罕见的金融危机迎面扑来，沉重的债务让这家百年老店骤然倒地。
伍尔沃斯已正式申请破产保护，并由世界著名的德勤会计公司接手了清产事务。
近一段时间以来，德勤方面四处奔走，多方接触，很希望这家百年老店能得到一个好的归宿。可残酷的现实是，至今找不到买主，被迫彻底的清仓抛售。
据报导，对于伍尔沃斯的前途，德勤会计公司目前还在努力，英国著名超市特易购、阿斯达、赛斯伯利等对伍尔沃斯在某些黄金地段的分店特别感兴趣。
但如果今年圣诞节期间还是卖不出去，伍尔沃斯不得不清产还债，百年招牌将成为历史。
..................................................................................
报纸很常可以看到美国某个大企业倒闭。
这次的经济风暴还真不小。
现在的我们最好还是保本为先。
企业的倒闭会提高失业率，也影响生意，更会影响经济。
现在是观察企业的时候，
那些经的起这场风暴必定可以长期看好。
我们就等着看吧。
１先生
每年圣诞节来临，英国各家商店都是红火一片，‘卖’、‘贱卖’、‘大抛售’等招牌异常醒目，但同样的一次大抛售，不只惊动了媒体，而且让英国社会各界倒吸一口凉气。
伍尔沃斯连锁店开始了清仓大抛售，卖的不只是货，而且还包括这个百年老店。
英国《独立报》称，这是伍尔沃斯‘走向结束的开始’，是一次罕见的‘百年大抛售’，充份显示了这家百年老店的最后悲情。
伍尔沃斯在英国曾是一个响当当的名字，1909年，她的第一家店在利物浦城开张，随后不断扩张实力，在英国各地建起了815家连锁店，拥有职员近3万人。
在销售糖果产品方面，伍尔沃斯是英国零售店中的老大；在玩具、童装、家居和娱乐用品方面，它也一度名列前5位。
然而，一场历史罕见的金融危机迎面扑来，沉重的债务让这家百年老店骤然倒地。
伍尔沃斯已正式申请破产保护，并由世界著名的德勤会计公司接手了清产事务。
近一段时间以来，德勤方面四处奔走，多方接触，很希望这家百年老店能得到一个好的归宿。可残酷的现实是，至今找不到买主，被迫彻底的清仓抛售。
据报导，对于伍尔沃斯的前途，德勤会计公司目前还在努力，英国著名超市特易购、阿斯达、赛斯伯利等对伍尔沃斯在某些黄金地段的分店特别感兴趣。
但如果今年圣诞节期间还是卖不出去，伍尔沃斯不得不清产还债，百年招牌将成为历史。
..................................................................................
报纸很常可以看到美国某个大企业倒闭。
这次的经济风暴还真不小。
现在的我们最好还是保本为先。
企业的倒闭会提高失业率，也影响生意，更会影响经济。
现在是观察企业的时候，
那些经的起这场风暴必定可以长期看好。
我们就等着看吧。
１先生
衰退有多严重？
最近才宣布衰退的美国再次的宣布了一个坏消息。
那就是失业率又提高了。
２００８的十一月的失业率是6.7％。（１５年里最厉害的一次）
总共裁员人数是533,000人在单单十一月里 ！！
（３４年里最厉害的一次）
人没工作就没收入，
没收入就没钱还款，
没钱还款屋就被搜，
被搜的屋就被拍卖，
拍卖的价钱就会低，
屋价低过贷款价值，
更多人还不起贷款，
更多人会面临破产。
这会是个恶性循环。。。
破产的人数会很直接的影响金融业（收不回贷款的钱）。
金融业面对困难也很直接影响整个企业界。
企业界的衰退也很直接的影响国家经济。
人没工作没收入消费很自然的减低了，
企业的业绩也很自然的减低了，
业绩越差越要减低成本。
减低成本的其中一种方法就是裁员。
这是失业率的影响！
＊报道的失业率不是最真实的数据！！
因为已经放弃找工的人都不算在失业率里。
这是失业率的破绽。
希望我国不会面对着很严重的失业为题。
3先生
油价
今年6月5日，政府宣布RON 97汽油每公升售价从1令吉92仙，涨至2令吉70仙，涨幅78仙
12月3日第6次调低油价.
每公升汽油及柴油零售价格一律调低10仙.
RON 97=1令吉90仙
RON 92=1令吉80仙
Diesel=1令吉80仙
写着这片文章时，国际油价是48.88 US／Barrel
我国已经不必津贴油钱了。
但政府也不能大幅度调低油价。
政府最大的收入是来自哪里？？就是油啦。
Petronas的贡献是我国政府收入的大部分。
少了它，我们就没那么好过了。
更何况现在是风暴时期。
我国的确需要资金来维持经济。
政府省了这笔津贴应该有效率的用在维持经济上。
不要放近高官的口袋里啊。
那是人民的钱。
0先生
12月3日第6次调低油价.
每公升汽油及柴油零售价格一律调低10仙.
RON 97=1令吉90仙
RON 92=1令吉80仙
Diesel=1令吉80仙
写着这片文章时，国际油价是48.88 US／Barrel
我国已经不必津贴油钱了。
但政府也不能大幅度调低油价。
政府最大的收入是来自哪里？？就是油啦。
Petronas的贡献是我国政府收入的大部分。
少了它，我们就没那么好过了。
更何况现在是风暴时期。
我国的确需要资金来维持经济。
政府省了这笔津贴应该有效率的用在维持经济上。
不要放近高官的口袋里啊。
那是人民的钱。
0先生
贪污
最干净之国
1.Finland
1.Iceland
1.New Zealand
4.Denmark
5.Singapore
6.Sweden
7.Switzerland
8.Norway
9.Australia
10.Netherlands
最腐败之国
156.Chad
156.Dem.Rep.of Congo
156.Sudan
160.Guinea
160.Iraq
160.Burma
163.Haiti
这是２００６的贪污排行榜.
我国马来西亚还没上榜。
有点意外。
因为经历过挂着＂Saya Anti Rasuah＂的牌但、还是要settle的警察。
相信你我都经历过吧。
前一阵子，反贪污开始做事了。
这还不错吗。
我国又有希望了。
0先生
1.Finland
1.Iceland
1.New Zealand
4.Denmark
5.Singapore
6.Sweden
7.Switzerland
8.Norway
9.Australia
10.Netherlands
最腐败之国
156.Chad
156.Dem.Rep.of Congo
156.Sudan
160.Guinea
160.Iraq
160.Burma
163.Haiti
这是２００６的贪污排行榜.
我国马来西亚还没上榜。
有点意外。
因为经历过挂着＂Saya Anti Rasuah＂的牌但、还是要settle的警察。
相信你我都经历过吧。
前一阵子，反贪污开始做事了。
这还不错吗。
我国又有希望了。
0先生
我国的第三季经济数字
全球金融风暴的影响之下我国的GDP有明显的下降。
幸运的是我国经济还在成长而不是负成长。
这季的4.7％的成长贡献是我们的服务业。
服务业在这季的成长是7.1％，只是少了0.5％（Q２=7.6％）
制造业在这季的成长只有1.78％，少了3.8％（Q２=5.6％）
建筑业在这季的成长而只有1.2％，少了2.7％（Q２=3.9％）
种植业在这季的成长是3.0％，少了2.9％（Q２=5.9％）
采矿业在这季的成长还是－0.3％（Q2=－0.5％）
建筑业和制造业都是周期性的行业。
在全球的经济衰退下，影响是最深的。
CPO的下跌导致种植业的成长也减少了。
我国是全球第二大CPO出产国。
全球的经济不断的衰退，我国Q４的GDP相信会比Q３的差。
但是2008的全年GDP会保持５。０％－５。５％的成长。
我国得当出口成长是16.9％，少了3.9％（Q２=20.8％）
美国，欧洲的衰退是会直接影响我国的出口。
它们是我们的出口主要国。
我国没有直接陷入金融风暴但是经济不断的衰退会把我国的2009经济大大的减少。
预测我国的2009的GDP会在2.5％－3.5％成长里。
我国人民举债率不高，
我国人民储蓄率高，
我国的NPL不高，
我国的Reserve还很高，
我国的金融体制还不错，
７０亿的经济计划,
降息.
相信我国还可以耐过这场风暴。
但是投资者就要谨慎的做出投资决定。
没人懂这场风暴会有多严重，会持续多久。。。
1先生
降息作用
利息也是有两面的。
一面是我们存钱的，另一面是我们借钱的。
某国家降息是为了提升经济。
降息会降低企业的成本（borrowing cost）
企业借更多的钱来投资和发展
降息也会降低我们把钱存在银行里。
我们会寻找更好的投资工具或拿来用。
这都会提升国家的经济（GDP）。
但是今天的状况不是那么的理想。
美国金融市场的崩溃影响了全世界的经济。
没那么多少人愿意花不必要的钱或投资。
很多企业也看淡经济也不要借钱发展。
所以这些降息要降多少在能吸引他们呢？
降息会降低银行的盈利。
我国降息0.25％。（3.25％）
SRR也降低0.5％（银行不必放４％的deposit在BNM了）
EPF可降低到8％
更多钱可以流入市场。
但是悲观的市场未必会对此有很好的反应。
美国，欧洲，中国，日本还不断的出现恶化的经济数据。
相信没多少人可以很理智的乐观起来。
我们还需要更多的时间来调整。
3先生
一面是我们存钱的，另一面是我们借钱的。
某国家降息是为了提升经济。
降息会降低企业的成本（borrowing cost）
企业借更多的钱来投资和发展
降息也会降低我们把钱存在银行里。
我们会寻找更好的投资工具或拿来用。
这都会提升国家的经济（GDP）。
但是今天的状况不是那么的理想。
美国金融市场的崩溃影响了全世界的经济。
没那么多少人愿意花不必要的钱或投资。
很多企业也看淡经济也不要借钱发展。
所以这些降息要降多少在能吸引他们呢？
降息会降低银行的盈利。
我国降息0.25％。（3.25％）
SRR也降低0.5％（银行不必放４％的deposit在BNM了）
EPF可降低到8％
更多钱可以流入市场。
但是悲观的市场未必会对此有很好的反应。
美国，欧洲，中国，日本还不断的出现恶化的经济数据。
相信没多少人可以很理智的乐观起来。
我们还需要更多的时间来调整。
3先生
US Economic Condition
Economic tumble worse than expected in 3rd quarter
Tuesday November 25, 1:41 pm ET
By Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer
Economy's tumble in the summer worse than first thought as consumers slash spending
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The economy took a tumble in the summer that was worse than first thought as American consumers throttled back their spending by the most in 28 years, further proof the country is almost certainly in the throes of a painful recession.
ADVERTISEMENT
The updated reading on the economy's performance, released Tuesday by the Commerce Department, showed the gross domestic product shrank at a 0.5 percent annual rate in the July-September quarter.
That was weaker than the 0.3 percent rate of decline first estimated a month ago, and marked the worst showing since the economy contracted at a 1.4 percent pace in the third quarter of 2001, when the nation was suffering through its last recession.
GDP measures the value of all goods and services produced within the U.S. and is considered the best barometer of the country's economic fitness.
"Consumers and businesses were like deer in the headlights ... frozen," said economist Ken Mayland, president of ClearView Economics.
The new reading on GDP underscores just how quickly the economy deteriorated as housing, credit and financial crises intensified. The economy logged growth of 2.8 percent in the second quarter.
White House press secretary Dana Perino called the lower GDP figure "troubling" and said new government efforts announced Tuesday to boost the availability of auto and student loans, credit cards, home loans and other consumer lending -- at cheaper rates -- should eventually help spur more consumer spending.
On Wall Street, those new government efforts provided an early lift to stocks, but the Dow Jones industrials were down about 90 points in afternoon trading.
Meanwhile, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. said the list of banks it considers to be in trouble shot up nearly 50 percent to 171 during the third quarter -- the highest level since late 1995. The FDIC also said that commercial banks and savings institutions suffered a 94 percent drop in third-quarter profits to $1.7 billion. Except for the fourth quarter of 2007, it was the lowest profit since the fourth quarter of 1990.
The FDIC does not reveal the institutions on its "troubled" list, but on average, about 13 percent of them end up failing.
Nine banks failed in the third quarter, decreasing the FDIC's deposit insurance fund to $34.6 billion from $45.2 billion in the second quarter, both below the target minimum level set by Congress. There have been 22 bank failures so far this year compared with three for all of 2007. It's expected that many more banks won't survive the next year of economic tumult.
Elsewhere, the New York-based Conference Board said its Consumer Confidence Index for November rose to 44.9, from a revised 38.8 in October. Last month's reading was the lowest since the research group started tracking the index in 1967 and Americans' views on the economy remain the gloomiest in decades as they grapple with massive layoffs, slumping home prices and dwindling retirement funds.
To revive the economy, President-elect Barack Obama, who takes over on Jan. 20, says a top priority will be working with Congress to enact a massive stimulus package that he says will generate millions of new jobs.
The new, lower third-quarter GDP reading matched economists' forecasts. The downgrade from the initial estimate mostly reflected an even sharper cut back in spending by consumers and less brisk sales growth of U.S. exports.
American consumers -- the lifeblood of the economy -- slashed spending in the third quarter at a 3.7 percent pace. That was deeper than the 3.1 percent cut initially reported and marked the biggest reduction since the second quarter of 1980, when the country was in the grip of recession.
Consumers are hunkering down amid job losses, tanking investment portfolios and sinking home values, which are making them nervous about spending.
Underscoring the strain faced by consumers, the report showed that Americans' disposable income fell at an annual rate of 9.2 percent in the third quarter, the largest quarterly drop on records dating back to 1947. The government's initial estimate had showed a record 8.7 percent decline in disposable income for the quarter.
Sales of U.S. exports grew at a 3.4 percent pace in the third quarter. That was lower than a 5.9 percent growth rate initially estimated and marked a sharp slowdown from the second quarter's blistering 12.3 percent growth rate. The deceleration reflects less demand from overseas buyers coping with their own economic problems.
Home builders slashed spending at a 17.6 percent pace, marking the 11th straight quarterly cut and fresh evidence of the depth of the housing slump.
Meanwhile, a report on home prices released Tuesday and downbeat earnings results from homebuilder D.R. Horton, showed further deterioration in the housing market. The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index said that home prices tumbled a record 16.6 percent during the third quarter from the same period a year ago. Prices are at levels not seen since the first quarter of 2004.
Fort Worth, Tex.-based D.R. Horton Inc. reported a nearly $800 million loss in its fiscal fourth quarter on slower home sales and more than $1 billion in charges amid a battered housing market.
To help revive the economy, the Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates when its meets on Dec. 16, its last session of the year. Last month, the Fed dropped its key rate to 1 percent, a level seen only once before in the last half-century.
So far, though, the Fed's rate reductions, a $700 billion financial bailout package and a flurry of other radical actions have been unable to break though a dangerous credit clog, restore stability to financial markets and help the sinking economy.
The nation's unemployment rate is at 6.5 percent, a 14-year high, and will climb higher. Employers have cut payrolls every month so far this year and more losses are expected in the months ahead. The total of number of unemployed in October was just over 10 million, the most in 25 years.
Given all the stresses, consumers are expected to burrow further, making it likely the economy will continue to shrink through the rest of this year and into 2009, more than fulfilling a classic definition of a recession. That is, two straight quarters of contracting GDP.
Malaysia and other country will effected with the economic slowdown in US(largest consumer country,lagest economic in the world).
Tuesday November 25, 1:41 pm ET
By Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer
Economy's tumble in the summer worse than first thought as consumers slash spending
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The economy took a tumble in the summer that was worse than first thought as American consumers throttled back their spending by the most in 28 years, further proof the country is almost certainly in the throes of a painful recession.
ADVERTISEMENT
The updated reading on the economy's performance, released Tuesday by the Commerce Department, showed the gross domestic product shrank at a 0.5 percent annual rate in the July-September quarter.
That was weaker than the 0.3 percent rate of decline first estimated a month ago, and marked the worst showing since the economy contracted at a 1.4 percent pace in the third quarter of 2001, when the nation was suffering through its last recession.
GDP measures the value of all goods and services produced within the U.S. and is considered the best barometer of the country's economic fitness.
"Consumers and businesses were like deer in the headlights ... frozen," said economist Ken Mayland, president of ClearView Economics.
The new reading on GDP underscores just how quickly the economy deteriorated as housing, credit and financial crises intensified. The economy logged growth of 2.8 percent in the second quarter.
White House press secretary Dana Perino called the lower GDP figure "troubling" and said new government efforts announced Tuesday to boost the availability of auto and student loans, credit cards, home loans and other consumer lending -- at cheaper rates -- should eventually help spur more consumer spending.
On Wall Street, those new government efforts provided an early lift to stocks, but the Dow Jones industrials were down about 90 points in afternoon trading.
Meanwhile, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. said the list of banks it considers to be in trouble shot up nearly 50 percent to 171 during the third quarter -- the highest level since late 1995. The FDIC also said that commercial banks and savings institutions suffered a 94 percent drop in third-quarter profits to $1.7 billion. Except for the fourth quarter of 2007, it was the lowest profit since the fourth quarter of 1990.
The FDIC does not reveal the institutions on its "troubled" list, but on average, about 13 percent of them end up failing.
Nine banks failed in the third quarter, decreasing the FDIC's deposit insurance fund to $34.6 billion from $45.2 billion in the second quarter, both below the target minimum level set by Congress. There have been 22 bank failures so far this year compared with three for all of 2007. It's expected that many more banks won't survive the next year of economic tumult.
Elsewhere, the New York-based Conference Board said its Consumer Confidence Index for November rose to 44.9, from a revised 38.8 in October. Last month's reading was the lowest since the research group started tracking the index in 1967 and Americans' views on the economy remain the gloomiest in decades as they grapple with massive layoffs, slumping home prices and dwindling retirement funds.
To revive the economy, President-elect Barack Obama, who takes over on Jan. 20, says a top priority will be working with Congress to enact a massive stimulus package that he says will generate millions of new jobs.
The new, lower third-quarter GDP reading matched economists' forecasts. The downgrade from the initial estimate mostly reflected an even sharper cut back in spending by consumers and less brisk sales growth of U.S. exports.
American consumers -- the lifeblood of the economy -- slashed spending in the third quarter at a 3.7 percent pace. That was deeper than the 3.1 percent cut initially reported and marked the biggest reduction since the second quarter of 1980, when the country was in the grip of recession.
Consumers are hunkering down amid job losses, tanking investment portfolios and sinking home values, which are making them nervous about spending.
Underscoring the strain faced by consumers, the report showed that Americans' disposable income fell at an annual rate of 9.2 percent in the third quarter, the largest quarterly drop on records dating back to 1947. The government's initial estimate had showed a record 8.7 percent decline in disposable income for the quarter.
Sales of U.S. exports grew at a 3.4 percent pace in the third quarter. That was lower than a 5.9 percent growth rate initially estimated and marked a sharp slowdown from the second quarter's blistering 12.3 percent growth rate. The deceleration reflects less demand from overseas buyers coping with their own economic problems.
Home builders slashed spending at a 17.6 percent pace, marking the 11th straight quarterly cut and fresh evidence of the depth of the housing slump.
Meanwhile, a report on home prices released Tuesday and downbeat earnings results from homebuilder D.R. Horton, showed further deterioration in the housing market. The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index said that home prices tumbled a record 16.6 percent during the third quarter from the same period a year ago. Prices are at levels not seen since the first quarter of 2004.
Fort Worth, Tex.-based D.R. Horton Inc. reported a nearly $800 million loss in its fiscal fourth quarter on slower home sales and more than $1 billion in charges amid a battered housing market.
To help revive the economy, the Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates when its meets on Dec. 16, its last session of the year. Last month, the Fed dropped its key rate to 1 percent, a level seen only once before in the last half-century.
So far, though, the Fed's rate reductions, a $700 billion financial bailout package and a flurry of other radical actions have been unable to break though a dangerous credit clog, restore stability to financial markets and help the sinking economy.
The nation's unemployment rate is at 6.5 percent, a 14-year high, and will climb higher. Employers have cut payrolls every month so far this year and more losses are expected in the months ahead. The total of number of unemployed in October was just over 10 million, the most in 25 years.
Given all the stresses, consumers are expected to burrow further, making it likely the economy will continue to shrink through the rest of this year and into 2009, more than fulfilling a classic definition of a recession. That is, two straight quarters of contracting GDP.
Malaysia and other country will effected with the economic slowdown in US(largest consumer country,lagest economic in the world).
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